The shipwreck remnants on the Mediterranean seafloor are evidence of the intense nautical activity in this geographical region across the millennia and of the many risks involved. Formal modelling approaches can help foster the understanding of the numerous factors and processes impacting maritime mobility in the past. Moreover, in the realm of spatial planning and heritage management, modelling the shipwrecking probability and the shipwreck formation processes helps identify potential yet unknown sites; this is crucial to optimize archaeological investigations, particularly in underwater contexts where remote sensing surveys are costly and challenging to sustain extensively. Despite their potential utility, maritime archaeological predictive models are still underdeveloped, particularly in the Mediterranean basin. This contribution presents the final results of a PhD project aimed at developing a suitable theory and a new GIS -based methodology for predicting the shipwrecking probability in Mediterranean territorial waters through multicriteria cost-surface analysis. The proposed model is developed at two different geographical and temporal scales to meet the need for a general tool applicable in spatial planning and a more detailed one, providing insights for historical and archaeological research. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the impact of uncertainty factors and explore different model scenarios. The lecture will focus particularly on the solutions adopted to overcome some of the main limitations of current modelling approaches to maritime mobility and shipwreck formation processes, which include the unheeded effects of input data biases, problematic testing, and the predominant use of environmental and economic input variables as archaeological site predictors to the detriment of cultural and cognitive aspects. Modelling strategies will be showcased that take into account the impact of human factors, such as the difference between perceived and actual navigation hazards in shaping the ancient seaborne movement. Learn more about Manuela Ritondale here)